Toronto’s fall scenes are the kind that stay with you. Streets glowing in red, orange, and yellow, the crisp air reminding you that maybe that extra layer would have been a good idea.
But this change of season signals something else too: the fall market is winding down. Which means that in just a couple of weeks, people might actually stop bringing up real estate at every dinner table.
Anyway, here are the September numbers:
📉 Average Selling Price:
Down 4.7% from last September.
📈 Total Transactions:
Up 8.5% year over year. Some buyers are testing the waters again.
🏠 New Listings:
Up 4% compared to last year.
📊 Sales to New Listings Ratio:
Still hovering around 29%, which means we have grown used to an absorption rate below 30%. It is no surprise that average prices continue to edge lower.
💡 Quick Take:
Despite the headlines, it seems that when motivated sellers list, buyers do show up, at least to a point. It tells me that demand is still there and quietly growing as affordability improves through lower prices or smaller rate bites.
Noteworthy Facts (Before You Run Off for Thanksgiving 🍂)
Because I know you are probably juggling PA day, pie prep, and maybe even a last minute grocery run, I will keep this part short.
🏦 One or two more rate cuts are expected before the spring market, which could be a real boost for first time buyers where every quarter point matters.
📅 26.6% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew between August 2026 and July 2027, which could mean a future uptick in listings.
🏢 Condo rental activity is up noticeably, with 16.6% more leases year over year in Q2. However, rents are down. One bedroom units dropped 5.1% to $2,326, while two bedrooms fell 3.5% to $3,066. Some landlords are clearly still trying to ride it out and hope for brighter days.
Do what you will with this information, but I will say it again: we are not heading into a soaring market anytime soon. Real estate is not about quick wins; it is a five to seven year game at minimum.
If you have the patience and the right plan, there are great opportunities out there right now. Let’s talk about how to make them work for you.
Happy Thanksgiving and see you next month.
Kam
