Knife cutting through real estate and stock

Are you going to catch that falling knife?

Friday Apr 04th, 2025

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March Maddness - Real Estate Edition

I don't think we need to beat around the bush here—it’s officially hit the fan. With J.P. Morgan upping its global recession odds to 60%, 2025 is shaping up to be one for the history books. At this rate, we may soon look back at COVID and say, “Ah, the good ol’ days.”

As for this month's stats, buckle up:

📉 Average Selling Price: Down 2.5% from last March, now sitting at $1,093,254. Homes are basically going on sale—but not the kind with balloons and a BBQ out front.

📉 Home Sales: Only 5,011 homes sold—a 23.1% drop from last year. At this point, your listing might be getting more engagement from your mom’s Facebook likes than actual buyers.

📈 New Listings: A whopping 28.6% increase, with 17,263 homes hitting the market. It’s like a clearance event out there. Buyers, where you at?

📉 Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio: Down to 29% from last year’s 49%. Translation: for every 100 homes listed in March, only 29 sold. It’s not exactly a sprint to the finish line.

🏠 Average Selling Price by Property Type:

  • Detached: $1.44M

  • Semi-detached: $1.11M

  • Townhouse: $908K

  • Condo: $682K

Condos remain the “budget-friendly” cousin—if you squint and ignore the maintenance fees. That said, they’re getting more attractive for entry-level buyers.

🗳️ So what now? With the upcoming federal election looming, President Trump waking up on a different side of the bed daily, and a painfully disappointing jobs report, there’s not much clarity to hang our hats on.

📉 Meanwhile, in the stock market: The S&P 500 is down 13.31% year-to-date. So, to simply break even, we’d need a 26% rally. For context, the glorious 2024 gave us a 23.3% gain. So yeah... yikes.

💭 Buyers: Ask yourself—how much further can this go? Would you rather catch something on the rebound, or are you brave enough to try catching the proverbial falling knife?

💬 Sellers: Patience is key. Be realistic, flexible, and maybe even a little creative. This isn’t your run-of-the-mill market—strategize accordingly.

Have a tarrifying month (pun intended)!

—Kam

 

 


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