If you say tariff ONE MORE TIME 🤮

Was it just me, or did January feel like it had a bonus round this year??

We had so much news this month that it felt like it would never end! Our PM resigned, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 0.25%, capital gains tax changes were deferred, Trump was inaugurated, Trump imposed tariffs, Trump Trump Trump...

Before I get to my usual monthly rant, let's take a look at what happened in the real estate market in January:

Here’s a quick take on the charts above:

1. Average Selling Price: Increased by a modest 1.5% from last January. Try telling that to studio and one-bedroom condo sellers in downtown!

2. Home Sales: Slowed down by almost 8% from last January. Just for context, last year we were almost popping champagne in January and February, thinking, "We’re back, baby!"—before the market dropped dead again in March.

3. New Listings: Now, this is where things get interesting—a whopping 48.6% increase! Buyers, are you paying attention?

4. Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (Absorption Rate): Dropped from 50% to 31%. But here’s the key detail: 3,847 homes sold in January 2025 vs. 4,177 in January 2024—a difference of just 330 homes across the entire GTA. In other words, the number of buyers didn’t keep up with the surge in listings. More supply ⬆️, but demand ↔️.

Uncertainty

We’re officially shifting the 2025 motto from "higher for longer" to uncertainty.

People don’t like uncertainty. Businesses don’t like uncertainty. Markets don’t like uncertainty.

Add to that five years of constant stress triggered by COVID, leading up to today, where Canadians are facing Trump 2.0—this time without an actual functioning government.

It’s like Team Canada finally making the playoffs, only for the head coach to take a six-month vacation. Fantastic!

Opportunities

All joking aside, there are still opportunities, especially for buyers. If you're thinking about taking advantage of this market, let’s talk. Coffee is on me!

In the meantime, if you want to shave nine years off your mortgage payments, I’ve got a video for you.

Don’t forget to like and follow!

Until next month…