So… the May numbers are in.
But before we get into the stats, let’s just take a moment to acknowledge the elephant in the room: there are now over 31,000 active listings on the market (and counting). That’s a level we haven’t seen in 25 years.
Naturally, the absorption rate - or sales-to-listings ratio if you prefer the technical term - is starting to show the pressure. You’d think this kind of inventory surge would trigger a buyer frenzy, right? Not quite. Turns out, buyers want certainty more than selection these days, and they’re in no rush.
Now, let’s dig into the numbers:
📉 Total Sales:
6,244 homes changed hands, down 13.3% from last May.
📈 New Listings:
21,819 hit the market, up 14% year-over-year. That’s 1,000 more listings than April and nearly 5,000 more than March but given the seasonality of real estate this is widely expected.
💰 Average Selling Price:
$1,120,879 which is down 4% from May 2024. Prices are sliding, but not collapsing. The shift feels more like a controlled descent.
📊 Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio:
Just 29% of listings sold and that is the lowest we've seen this spring (April was 30%, March 29%). This is where it's starting to sting really!
🏡 Average Prices by Property Type:
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Detached: $1,425,264
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Semi-Detached: $1,098,447
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Townhouse: $904,272
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Condo: $683,413
So, What’s Happening?
Buyers are cautious. They’re seeing more options and feeling less urgency. Some are waiting on rate cuts. Others are waiting on better deals.
Sellers, on the other hand, are slowly adjusting expectations. Price reductions and longer DOM (days on market) are becoming more common.
Looking ahead, we’re heading into the quieter summer months. Unless there’s a major shift in interest rates or policy, we can expect:
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More listings sitting longer
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Continued downward pressure on prices in some segments
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Opportunity for buyers who are prepared and decisive
Between the trade war drama, Toronto’s unemployment rate creeping up to 8.8% in May, and the Bank of Canada choosing to play statue with its rates, buyers aren’t exactly racing to the offer table—and honestly, can you blame them? With the way things are going, it feels like patience might actually pay off for once.
Let’s talk affordability—or lack thereof. In a city where the average pre-tax income is about $80,000, the average detached home is still north of $1.4 million. That’s roughly $6,500 a month in mortgage payments—and that’s before you buy your first piece of patio furniture. So yeah, buyers taking their sweet time? Totally understandable.
Until next month...
